Authors:
Jatish C. Biswas, M. Maniruzzaman
, U. A. Naher
, M. M. Haque, M. B. Hossain
,
M. M. Rahman
, M. M. U. Miah
, A. K. Choudhury
, S. Akhter
, F. Ahmed
,
M. A. Hamid
, N. Kalra
, J Furuya |
Abstract:
Climate change impact will impair cereal crop production in Bangladesh. The present study
investigated the scope of growing rice, wheat and maize in Bangladesh by 2050 and 2100
compared to 2010. Representative concentration pathway (RCP) based projected data on
maximum and minimum temperatures, rainfall and solar radiation were used under five different
general circulation models. Although there are variations in maximum and minimum temperature
increase in different regions of Bangladesh, monthly maximum temperature increase would be
0.60-0.99oC in 2050 and 0.83-2.93oC in 2100 compared to 2010 under different RCPs. Increase
in monthly minimum temperature is likely to be 0.98-1.31oC in 2050 and 0.75-2.93oC in 2100 compared to 2010. In general, solar radiation is likely to increase during November to February
in Central, South-central and South-west regions of Bangladesh. Rainfall is likely to increase
compared to 1948-2013. Critical maximum temperature limits for maize and rice growth will
cross the limit during March through October under RCP8.5; during March under RCP4.5 and
RCP6.0. In winter season, suitable maximum temperature is likely to prevail during December to
February in 2050 and 2100 for wheat cultivation. The effects of increased minimum temperature
would be more pronounced in future because it greatly influences the rate of senescence and
grain filling. Development and utilization of irrigation facilities and cultivation of heat tolerant
varieties with suitable inputs and agri-management options will be essential to meet the future
climate change impacts in Bangladesh. |
